Influenza and the implications of a pandemic for Malta

An influenza pandemic is inevitable and recent reports from Southeast Asia on avian influenza viruses infecting humans have served to fuel worries that a new pandemic is near. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the epidemiological and public health aspects of seasonal, avian and pandemic influenza through a literature review and to describe the possible effects of an Influenza pandemic on Malta using the FluAid model. The results of the model indicate that between 158 and 454 deaths would be expected for a 12-week pandemic causing clinical symptoms in 25% of the population. There would be between 432 and 1,488 hospitalisations and between 40,483 and 74,704 general practice consultations. Although the results of the model show a wide range of estimates and are limited by a lack of local parameters, the data presented in this article shows the severe effect of a pandemic on the Maltese health care system and will be useful for pandemic planning. Further research needs to be undertaken to determine local parameters to improve the model estimates and local health authorities need to ensure that adequate resources are provided to implement an effective pandemic preparedness plan.peer-reviewe

Clinical Update Influenza and the Implications of a Pandemic for Malta

Abstract An influenza pandemic is inevitable and recent reports from Southeast Asia on avian influenza viruses infecting humans have served to fuel worries that a new pandemic is near. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the epidemiological and public health aspects of seasonal, avian and pandemic influenza through a literature review and to describe the possible effects of an Influenza pandemic on Malta using the FluAid model. The results of the model indicate that between 158 and 454 deaths would be expected for a 12-week pandemic causing clinical symptoms in 25% of the population. There would be between 432 and 1,488 hospitalisations and between 40,483 and 74,704 general practice consultations. Although the results of the model show a wide range of estimates and are limited by a lack of local parameters, the data presented in this article shows the severe effect of a pandemic on the Maltese health care system and will be useful for pandemic planning. Further research needs to be undertaken to determine local parameters to improve the model estimates and local health authorities need to ensure that adequate resources are provided to implement an effective pandemic preparedness plan

Associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates in European Union/European Economic Area and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection, 2009-2016

Background: The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Neisseria gonorrhoeae, nationally and internationally, is a serious threat to the management and control of gonorrhoea. Limited and conflicting data regarding the epidemiological drivers of gonococcal AMR internationally have been published. We examined the antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of gonococcal isolates (n = 15,803) collected across 27 European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries in 2009–2016, in conjunction to epidemiological and clinical data of the corresponding patients, to elucidate associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance and patients’ gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection. Methods: In total, 15,803 N. gonorrhoeae isolates from the European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP), 2009–2016, were examined. Associations between gonococcal susceptibility/resistance and patients’ gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection were investigated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Statistical significance was determined by Pearson χ 2-test or Fisher’s exact test with two-tailed p-values of < 0.05 indicating significance Results: The overall gonococcal resistance from 2009 to 2016 was 51.7% (range during the years: 46.5–63.5%), 7.1% (4.5–13.2%), 4.3% (1.8–8.7%), and 0.2% (0.0–0.5%) to ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefixime, and ceftriaxone, respectively. The level of resistance combined with decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone was 10.2% (5.7–15.5%). Resistance to cefixime and ciprofloxacin, and resistance combined with decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone were positively associated with urogenital infections and heterosexual males, males with sexual orientation not reported and females (except for ciprofloxacin), i.e. when compared to men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). Azithromycin resistance was positively associated with heterosexual males, but no association was significant regarding anatomical site of infection. Conclusions: Overall, sexual orientation was the main variable associated with gonococcal AMR. Strongest positive associations were identified with heterosexual patients, particularly males, and not MSM. To provide evidence-based understanding and mitigate gonococcal AMR emergence and spread, associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance and patients’ gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection need to be further investigated in different geographic settings. In general, these insights will support identification of groups at increased risk and targeted public health actions such as intensified screening, 3-site testing using molecular diagnostics, sexual contact tracing, and surveillance of treatment failures.The study was funded by the ECDC (Framework Contract No. ECDC/2017/004). Open Access funding provided by Örebro UniversityS

Antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates from foreign-born population in the European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme

International spread has contributed substantially to the high prevalence of antimicrobial resistant (AMR) Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections worldwide. We compared the prevalence of AMR gonococcal isolates among native persons to foreign-born (reporting country different from country of birth) persons, and describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of foreign-born patients and their associations to AMR. We analysed isolates and patient data reported to the European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP) 2010-2014 (n=9529). Forty-three per cent of isolates had known country of birth and 17.2% of these were from persons born abroad. Almost 50% of foreign-born were from the WHO European Region (13.1% from non-European Union [EU] and the European Economic Area [EEA] countries). Compared with isolates from natives, isolates from foreign-born had a similar level (p>0.05) of azithromycin resistance (7.5% vs 7.2%), ciprofloxacin resistance (50.0% vs 46.3%) and of decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone (1.9% vs 2.8%); a lower rate of cefixime resistance (5.7% vs 3.6%, p=0.02), and a higher proportion of isolates producing penicillinase (8.4% vs 11.7%, p=0.02). Among isolates from persons born outside EU/EEA, the level of decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone was higher (1.8% vs 3.5%, p=0.02), particularly in those from the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region and non-EU/EEA WHO European countries (1.9% vs 9.6% and 8.7%, respectively, p<0.01). In multivariable analysis, foreign-born patients with AMR isolates were more likely to be from non-EU/EEA WHO European countries (adjusted OR [aOR]: 3.2, 95% CI 1.8 to 5.8), WHO Eastern Mediterranean countries (aOR: 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.3) and heterosexual males (aOR: 1.8, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.7). Importation of AMR strains remains an important threat in the EU/EEA. Research to improve understanding of sexual networks within foreign born and sexual tourism populations could help to inform effective tailor-made interventions. The Euro-GASP demonstrates the public health value of quality-assured surveillance of gonococcal AMR and the need for strengthened AMR surveillance, particularly in the non-EU/EEA WHO European Region

Letter to the editor : Chlamydia trachomatis samples testing falsely negative in the Aptima Combo 2 test in Finland, 2019

Non peer reviewe

Associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates in European Union/European Economic Area and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection, 2009-2016.

BACKGROUND: The emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Neisseria gonorrhoeae, nationally and internationally, is a serious threat to the management and control of gonorrhoea. Limited and conflicting data regarding the epidemiological drivers of gonococcal AMR internationally have been published. We examined the antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance of gonococcal isolates (n = 15,803) collected across 27 European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries in 2009-2016, in conjunction to epidemiological and clinical data of the corresponding patients, to elucidate associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection. METHODS: In total, 15,803 N. gonorrhoeae isolates from the European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP), 2009-2016, were examined. Associations between gonococcal susceptibility/resistance and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection were investigated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Statistical significance was determined by Pearson χ2-test or Fisher's exact test with two-tailed p-values of < 0.05 indicating significance. RESULTS: The overall gonococcal resistance from 2009 to 2016 was 51.7% (range during the years: 46.5-63.5%), 7.1% (4.5-13.2%), 4.3% (1.8-8.7%), and 0.2% (0.0-0.5%) to ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefixime, and ceftriaxone, respectively. The level of resistance combined with decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone was 10.2% (5.7-15.5%). Resistance to cefixime and ciprofloxacin, and resistance combined with decreased susceptibility to ceftriaxone were positively associated with urogenital infections and heterosexual males, males with sexual orientation not reported and females (except for ciprofloxacin), i.e. when compared to men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). Azithromycin resistance was positively associated with heterosexual males, but no association was significant regarding anatomical site of infection. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, sexual orientation was the main variable associated with gonococcal AMR. Strongest positive associations were identified with heterosexual patients, particularly males, and not MSM. To provide evidence-based understanding and mitigate gonococcal AMR emergence and spread, associations between antimicrobial susceptibility/resistance and patients' gender, sexual orientation and anatomical site of infection need to be further investigated in different geographic settings. In general, these insights will support identification of groups at increased risk and targeted public health actions such as intensified screening, 3-site testing using molecular diagnostics, sexual contact tracing, and surveillance of treatment failures

The European gonococcal antimicrobial surveillance programme (Euro-GASP) appropriately reflects the antimicrobial resistance situation for Neisseria gonorrhoeae in the European Union/European Economic Area.

BACKGROUND: European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP) antimicrobial resistance (AMR) data are used to inform gonorrhoea treatment guidelines; therefore the data need to be robust and representative. We assessed the extent to which Euro-GASP reflects national measures of the AMR situation for Neisseria gonorrhoeae across the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA). METHODS: We compared data from Euro-GASP with published national gonococcal AMR data from 15 countries for azithromycin, cefixime and ciprofloxacin for the period 2009 to 2013 and performed Poisson regression to identify differences (p  90%). EQA performance was also good;  4-fold from the modal MIC of the EQA isolate. CONCLUSIONS: The overall prevalence of AMR reported by Euro-GASP reflects closely the AMR situation for N. gonorrhoeae in the EU/EEA. Euro-GASP data can be used to provide robust AMR estimates to inform the European guideline for the management of gonorrhoea

Significant increase in azithromycin "resistance" and susceptibility to ceftriaxone and cefixime in Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates in 26 European countries, 2019

Background: The European Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Programme (Euro-GASP) performs annual sentinel surveillance of Neisseria gonorrhoeae susceptibility to therapeutically relevant antimicrobials across the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA). We present the Euro-GASP results from 2019 (26 countries), linked to patient epidemiological data, and compared with data from previous years. Methods: Agar dilution and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) gradient strip methodologies were used to determine the antimicrobial susceptibility (using EUCAST clinical breakpoints, where available) of 3239 N. gonorrhoeae isolates from 26 countries across the EU/EEA. Significance of differences compared with Euro-GASP results in previous years was analysed using Z-test and the Pearson's χ2 test was used to assess significance of odds ratios for associations between patient epidemiological data and antimicrobial resistance. Results: European N. gonorrhoeae isolates collected between 2016 and 2019 displayed shifting MIC distributions for; ceftriaxone, with highly susceptible isolates increasing over time and occasional resistant isolates each year; cefixime, with highly-susceptible isolates becoming increasingly common; azithromycin, with a shift away from lower MICs towards higher MICs above the EUCAST epidemiological cut-off (ECOFF); and ciprofloxacin which is displaying a similar shift in MICs as observed for azithromycin. In 2019, two isolates displayed ceftriaxone resistance, but both isolates had MICs below the azithromycin ECOFF. Cefixime resistance (0.8%) was associated with patient sex, with resistance higher in females compared with male heterosexuals and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The number of countries reporting isolates with azithromycin MICs above the ECOFF increased from 76.9% (20/26) in 2016 to 92.3% (24/26) in 2019. Isolates with azithromycin MICs above the ECOFF (9.0%) were associated with pharyngeal infection sites. Following multivariable analysis, ciprofloxacin resistance remained associated with isolates from MSM and heterosexual males compared with females, the absence of a concurrent chlamydial infection, pharyngeal infection sites and patients ≥ 25 years of age. Conclusions: Resistance to ceftriaxone and cefixime remained uncommon in EU/EEA countries in 2019 with a significant decrease in cefixime resistance observed between 2016 and 2019. The significant increase in azithromycin "resistance" (azithromycin MICs above the ECOFF) threatens the effectiveness of the dual therapy (ceftriaxone + azithromycin), i.e., for ceftriaxone-resistant cases, currently recommended in many countries internationally and requires close monitoring.The study was funded by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (Framework Contract No. ECDC/2017/004). The funding body designed, initiated and coordinated the study as well as assisted in the interpretation of the data, development and final approval of the manuscriptS

Europe-wide expansion and eradication of multidrug-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae lineages: a genomic surveillance study

Background: Genomic surveillance using quality-assured whole-genome sequencing (WGS) together with epidemiological and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) data is essential to characterise the circulating Neisseria gonorrhoeae lineages and their association to patient groups (defined by demographic and epidemiological factors). In 2013, the European gonococcal population was characterised genomically for the first time. We describe the European gonococcal population in 2018 and identify emerging or vanishing lineages associated with AMR and epidemiological characteristics of patients, to elucidate recent changes in AMR and gonorrhoea epidemiology in Europe. Methods: We did WGS on 2375 gonococcal isolates from 2018 (mainly Sept 1-Nov 30) in 26 EU and EEA countries. Molecular typing and AMR determinants were extracted from quality-checked genomic data. Association analyses identified links between genomic lineages, AMR, and epidemiological data. Findings: Azithromycin-resistant N gonorrhoeae (8·0% [191/2375] in 2018) is rising in Europe due to the introduction or emergence and subsequent expansion of a novel N gonorrhoeae multi-antigen sequence typing (NG-MAST) genogroup, G12302 (132 [5·6%] of 2375; N gonorrhoeae sequence typing for antimicrobial resistance [NG-STAR] clonal complex [CC]168/63), carrying a mosaic mtrR promoter and mtrD sequence and found in 24 countries in 2018. CC63 was associated with pharyngeal infections in men who have sex with men. Susceptibility to ceftriaxone and cefixime is increasing, as the resistance-associated lineage, NG-MAST G1407 (51 [2·1%] of 2375), is progressively vanishing since 2009-10. Interpretation: Enhanced gonococcal AMR surveillance is imperative worldwide. WGS, linked to epidemiological and AMR data, is essential to elucidate the dynamics in gonorrhoea epidemiology and gonococcal populations as well as to predict AMR. When feasible, WGS should supplement the national and international AMR surveillance programmes to elucidate AMR changes over time. In the EU and EEA, increasing low-level azithromycin resistance could threaten the recommended ceftriaxone-azithromycin dual therapy, and an evidence-based clinical azithromycin resistance breakpoint is needed. Nevertheless, increasing ceftriaxone susceptibility, declining cefixime resistance, and absence of known resistance mutations for new treatments (zoliflodacin, gepotidacin) are promising.This study was supported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance, the Li Ka Shing Foundation (Big Data Institute, University of Oxford), the Wellcome Genome Campus, the Foundation for Medical Research at Örebro University Hospital, and grants from Wellcome (098051 and 099202). LSB was funded by Conselleria de Sanitat Universal i Salut Pública, Generalitat Valenciana (Plan GenT CDEI-06/20-B), Valencia, Spain, and Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (PID2020–120113RA-I00), Spain, at the time of analysing and writing this manuscript.S

Initial assessment of the COVID-19 vaccination's impact on case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths in people aged 80 years and older, 15 EU/EEA countries, December 2020 to May 2021

Prioritisation of elderly people in COVID-19 vaccination campaigns aimed at reducing severe outcomes in this group. Using EU/EEA surveillance and vaccination uptake, we estimated the risk ratio of case, hospitalisation and death notifications in people 80 years and older compared with 25-59-year-olds. Highest impact was observed for full vaccination uptake 80% or higher with reductions in notification rates of cases up to 65% (IRR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.13-0.99), hospitalisations up to 78% (IRR: 0.22; 95% CI: 0.13-0.37) and deaths up to 84% (IRR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.13-0.20).S